December 11, 2017

November 2017 Newsletter

How can it not. Property has been growing at a rate of approx. 7%p.a. for centuries. In fact, there was a study done in the UK looking back as close to 1066 when Normans, who invaded England, brought with them the idea of titles. It was deemed very roughly that property had been growing at around 7% (doubling every 10 years) since then. Studies have been done in the US and Australia over 200 and 100 years respectively and the same percentages hold. Property doubles in value about every 10 years.

The main “rates” I watch to make me think little will change into the future are Interest rates, Population growth rate and unemployment rate. With interest rates on hold for the foreseeable future, and no change in the massive population growth in Victoria, it is only the unemployment rate that should affect property price growth. And this is about as favourable as it can be at the moment.

I believe that property prices will keep surging forward very strongly whilst we have massive demand fed by the population growth, and very low unemployment. If interest rates rise next year, which I believe they will, this will only be due to a strengthening economy and this will lead to further price growth in housing in Melbourne.

The only situation I can foresee that will affect continuing price growth is the “unforeseeable event” I do believe there will be limited price growth for apartments in the next decade, but anything on its own title and its own land should see continued growth in the foreseeable future.

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